I had the good fortune of attending a luncheon this week with NB Premier Bernard Lord and Quebec Premier Jean Charest.
While each man is struggling with support in their respective provinces, it is clear that both are part of a growing movement of provincial leaders turning to the national stage to boost their support.
Lord, whose on again/off again look at the national conservative leadership left some wondering if he really was national material, is now positioning himself as a statesman among provincial leaders.
Charest, who once was thought to be the Great White Hope has continued to fade and is now looking at how he can salvage a dissapointing political career.
Together they have much in common and they are smart enough to know that by combining forces they can help each other within their own provinces.
Yesterday's theme of partnership was a synonym for federalism and it is clear that Jean Charest and Bernard Lord are going to be the leaders that help save Canada during the next Quebec referendum.
Yesterday's speech was more of a mutual admiration society with Lord praising Charest and Charest praising Lord - and guess what.... it worked!! The National Press core picked up the story - despite very little substance to the "partnership" luncheon.
This is a trend we should expect to see more of.
With Prime Minister Stephen Harper assuming a very "Prime Ministerial" role and sticking to national issues, it has created more room for our provincial leaders to generate some national exposure and raise their popularity at home.
It's a good plan that could actually be good for the country, but it also has the potential of being nothing more than masterful Public Relations.
The electorate and the media should take heed and proceed cautiously with any optimism.
Our Provincial leaders should also proceed cautiously and work to produce positive, impactful differences to the lives of Canadians.
That in itselfwouldl also boost their numbers!
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
Tuesday, April 04, 2006
The Tale of Two Minorities
This week is an interesting one in Canadian politics. The 39th session of Pariliament kicks off today in Ottawa with the Speech from the Throne. Prime Minister Harper is expected to move quickly to introduce key pieces of legislation from the campaign including the highly publicized Accountability Legislation that is intended to prevent future Sponsorship Scandals from occuring.
This will be a tough session on the Prime Minister. With only 125 out of 308 seats in Parliament he must continue to engage opposition parties if he hopes to achieve anything at all. As well, an Ipsos poll yesterday, while suggesting most Canadians want some stability for at least a year, also shows that the majority of Canadians are in favour of forcing an election if the government doesn't fulfil its promises early on.
Making it even more difficult will be the dimishing "benefit of the doubt" attitude for Prime Minister Harper from the national press corps. While the tactic of controlling all access and managing each message to within an inch of its death has allowed the PM to appear very Prime Ministerial (dare we even say Presidential) the national press gang will not allow the honeymoon continue if they can't access and stories.
So the PM must appease opposition, the electorate and the press corp and, by all accounts he has about 30 days to do it all...talk about pressure!!
On the home front, Premier Bernard Lord is facing a struggle of his own as he continues to skate the line between saving his government and being forced into an election. His campaign style spending spree is just taunting the opposition to force an election call the Premier can say "We didn't want an election - just like New Brunswickers don't want an election. But since the big bad Liberals have forced one - look at all the money we've spent."
This is not a new election tactic. The federal Liberals used is just before the last federal election. Except the Premier is forgetting one important fact. The electorate is smarter than that and the campaign spending bonanza - while nice - does not ensure victory.
The debate this week on the good news provincial budget will be an interesting one and a real test for government.
So there you have it - the ongoing saga of two minorities - each with its challenges. Each trying to find that elusive middle ground that allows governments to stay in power term after term.
The real question however is how effective will the opposition parties be at exposing these weaknesses. If played right we could have two elections this year.
if not, both governments will live to fight another day...maybe even longer.
This will be a tough session on the Prime Minister. With only 125 out of 308 seats in Parliament he must continue to engage opposition parties if he hopes to achieve anything at all. As well, an Ipsos poll yesterday, while suggesting most Canadians want some stability for at least a year, also shows that the majority of Canadians are in favour of forcing an election if the government doesn't fulfil its promises early on.
Making it even more difficult will be the dimishing "benefit of the doubt" attitude for Prime Minister Harper from the national press corps. While the tactic of controlling all access and managing each message to within an inch of its death has allowed the PM to appear very Prime Ministerial (dare we even say Presidential) the national press gang will not allow the honeymoon continue if they can't access and stories.
So the PM must appease opposition, the electorate and the press corp and, by all accounts he has about 30 days to do it all...talk about pressure!!
On the home front, Premier Bernard Lord is facing a struggle of his own as he continues to skate the line between saving his government and being forced into an election. His campaign style spending spree is just taunting the opposition to force an election call the Premier can say "We didn't want an election - just like New Brunswickers don't want an election. But since the big bad Liberals have forced one - look at all the money we've spent."
This is not a new election tactic. The federal Liberals used is just before the last federal election. Except the Premier is forgetting one important fact. The electorate is smarter than that and the campaign spending bonanza - while nice - does not ensure victory.
The debate this week on the good news provincial budget will be an interesting one and a real test for government.
So there you have it - the ongoing saga of two minorities - each with its challenges. Each trying to find that elusive middle ground that allows governments to stay in power term after term.
The real question however is how effective will the opposition parties be at exposing these weaknesses. If played right we could have two elections this year.
if not, both governments will live to fight another day...maybe even longer.
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Escapes To Fight Another Day
It appears that New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord was able to escape a potential election campaign this week thanks to some political savvy and a booming economy.
The move to put defector Tanker Malley in the Speakers Chair gave the ex-pat from Miramichi the "power" he so desperately wanted. The smile that filled his face after being appointed speaker showed that recognition and a big chair are enough to please those with simple needs.
The good news budget filled with new money and tax cuts is thanks to a booming Canadian economy, a great New Brunswick business sector and some sound leadership in our New Brunswick boardrooms.
So the Lord government may escape to fight another day - but should they run?
In my opinion, the Liberals under Shawn Graham have overplayed their current lead in the polls and may have underestimated the ability for Lord to save his premiership. While the Liberals enjoy a 15 point lead and victories in the last 2 byelections, New Brunswickers, like all Canadians, are not overly keen on going to the polls anytime soon.
As well, despite an overwhelming desire and committment, Shawn Graham has yet to convince everyone he has the ability to be a Premier.
The Liberals, who continued to talk about defeating the government now have to continue to push the issue. The problem is they may lose either way. If they can't force the government into an early election they look weak. If they do force an election they risk alienating the electorate and facing trouble at the polls.
The Conservatives have played it smart, and may see a boost in popular opinion- so much so they may wish they had not averted the election to a time when New Brunswickers may forget all the good news.
Then again, maybe that's been the plan all along and an election will be called if the polling shows enough of a boost to hit the campaign trail. Then they can blame the Liberals for forcing the campaign.
The Strategy in politics is a tricky affair. No wonder so many potential leaders run the other way!
The move to put defector Tanker Malley in the Speakers Chair gave the ex-pat from Miramichi the "power" he so desperately wanted. The smile that filled his face after being appointed speaker showed that recognition and a big chair are enough to please those with simple needs.
The good news budget filled with new money and tax cuts is thanks to a booming Canadian economy, a great New Brunswick business sector and some sound leadership in our New Brunswick boardrooms.
So the Lord government may escape to fight another day - but should they run?
In my opinion, the Liberals under Shawn Graham have overplayed their current lead in the polls and may have underestimated the ability for Lord to save his premiership. While the Liberals enjoy a 15 point lead and victories in the last 2 byelections, New Brunswickers, like all Canadians, are not overly keen on going to the polls anytime soon.
As well, despite an overwhelming desire and committment, Shawn Graham has yet to convince everyone he has the ability to be a Premier.
The Liberals, who continued to talk about defeating the government now have to continue to push the issue. The problem is they may lose either way. If they can't force the government into an early election they look weak. If they do force an election they risk alienating the electorate and facing trouble at the polls.
The Conservatives have played it smart, and may see a boost in popular opinion- so much so they may wish they had not averted the election to a time when New Brunswickers may forget all the good news.
Then again, maybe that's been the plan all along and an election will be called if the polling shows enough of a boost to hit the campaign trail. Then they can blame the Liberals for forcing the campaign.
The Strategy in politics is a tricky affair. No wonder so many potential leaders run the other way!
Monday, March 20, 2006
Ethically Unethical
So the Prime Minister responded today to the Ethic Commissioners report that states the David Emerson defection to the Conservatives 9 days after being elected a Liberal was not, in any way, unethical.
While Emerson's poltical opportunism may not be reason for an investigation in the eyes of the Ethics Commissioner -but let's not forget that this is the same ethics commissioner that the PM all but fired just days ago.
It's interesting that the Commissioner's announcement to investigate the defection brought a refusal to cooperate but the decision not to investigate brings acknowledgement (albeit indignant acknowledgement).
Despite what the Commissioner believes, the Prime Minister should listen to Canadians and do the right thing. Call a byelection in BC and let Emerson win (or lose) as a member of the government.
At the very least allow Emerson to sit as a backbencher until his constituents have had a say. Then we'll see how committed a politician Mr. Emerson is. My guess is no glory - no show!
It's really ashame when the world's second oldest profession and the world's oldest profession get so blurred!!
Sunday, March 19, 2006
The Date Has Been Set - Does Anyone Care?
The National Executive for the Liberal Party of Canada has set Dec 2nd and 3rd in Montreal as the date for the party to elect its next leader. As well the party has revealed that it has loosened the rules governing who can enter the race and has said it has plans to make up its $4 million debt by Fall.
Now with only one declared candidate the question we have to ask is that does anyone care about this leadership convention and, more importantly, how will the party get its membership excited about the convention and, more importantly, rebuilding the party around its new leader.
For one, the party executive and staffers in Ottawa need to spend a lot of time counselling regular members from coast to coast to coast on what is needed in a leader. It's not time to charge forward and use similar tactics to when Paul Martin was running for the leadership - tactics that divided the party, caused Sheila Copps and John Manley to run away from the party and laid the path to the last election. Instead its time to look, listen and allow ordinary Canadians the chance to pick its leader in the most inclusive way possible. The party should look at options like one member one vote - ensuring that all members have a say - not just those elected at a riding association meeting.
The convention in December should be used as an opportunity to speak to Canadians about where this party has been and, more importantly, where this party wants to go. How it can provide a true vision and true and valid option for Canadians.
The convention should be the party's new beginning. A chance to show that despite the recent loss and the issues that plagued the party - the Liberal Party of Canada is still the most representative party for all Canadians.
If these steps aren't taken and the December covention is nothing but a coronation of who the decision makers want to be leader I predict the "winner" should get used to parking at Stornoway for many years.
P.S. - Former Prime Minister Paul Martin quietly Resigned today as official leader of the Liberal Party. Martin has done all he can and discovered it was not the right time for him with the Canadian people. The one consolation he can have is that he was able to shake the ghosts of the past that ensured his father, Paul Martin Sr., was never able to run for the top job - that and the fact that he can go back to his shipping company and make millions before he retires in luxury. Good Luck Mr. Martin and thanks for your service to your country.
Now with only one declared candidate the question we have to ask is that does anyone care about this leadership convention and, more importantly, how will the party get its membership excited about the convention and, more importantly, rebuilding the party around its new leader.
For one, the party executive and staffers in Ottawa need to spend a lot of time counselling regular members from coast to coast to coast on what is needed in a leader. It's not time to charge forward and use similar tactics to when Paul Martin was running for the leadership - tactics that divided the party, caused Sheila Copps and John Manley to run away from the party and laid the path to the last election. Instead its time to look, listen and allow ordinary Canadians the chance to pick its leader in the most inclusive way possible. The party should look at options like one member one vote - ensuring that all members have a say - not just those elected at a riding association meeting.
The convention in December should be used as an opportunity to speak to Canadians about where this party has been and, more importantly, where this party wants to go. How it can provide a true vision and true and valid option for Canadians.
The convention should be the party's new beginning. A chance to show that despite the recent loss and the issues that plagued the party - the Liberal Party of Canada is still the most representative party for all Canadians.
If these steps aren't taken and the December covention is nothing but a coronation of who the decision makers want to be leader I predict the "winner" should get used to parking at Stornoway for many years.
P.S. - Former Prime Minister Paul Martin quietly Resigned today as official leader of the Liberal Party. Martin has done all he can and discovered it was not the right time for him with the Canadian people. The one consolation he can have is that he was able to shake the ghosts of the past that ensured his father, Paul Martin Sr., was never able to run for the top job - that and the fact that he can go back to his shipping company and make millions before he retires in luxury. Good Luck Mr. Martin and thanks for your service to your country.
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